The Fed recently raised rates for the first time in 2018, after leaving rates unchanged in January. Committee members noted significant strength in the labor market and a slight uptick in inflation. They did, however, note that the inflation level was still quite low overall. Previous statements from the Fed noted household spending and capital investment as areas of strength, but their most recent statement backed off of these sectors some. The Fed will continue to assess achieved and expected economic conditions versus the objectives of employment and a 2% inflation rate. This will determine the timing and size of future adjustments to the targeted federal funds rate. Since the beginning of 2018, we have seen the 10-Year Treasury yield rise steadily from 2.46% at the beginning of the year to a high of 2.94% in late February. The 10-Year Treasury yield seems to have settled in the 2.78% to 2.83% range for the time being. A healthy yield curve will have a spread of 140 to 150 basis points between the 2-Year Treasury yield and the 10-Y Treasury yield. Right now, the spread is only about 50 basis points, and additional rate hikes will likely cause the yield curve to flatten out even more. Investors of Ginnie Mae project loans have widened their spreads considerably in order to achieve higher coupons that are available to investors across other sectors. The bottom line for our borrowers is that while there is certainly some volatility out there, even though interest rates are considerably higher when compared to the last few years, interest rates for FHA insured mortgages are still lower than other long-term financing products. There continues to be strong appetite for FHA insured mortgages wrapped with Ginnie Mae securities. At Love Funding, we are in tune with the market movements throughout each business day in order to provide our borrowers with the information needed to lock their interest rate. As rates continue to rise, we have the ability to tap in to our large pool of investors in order to achieve a successful execution. We also have the ability to offer split interest rates on our construction/permanent products to help maximize proceeds when debt service constraints come in to play.
Market Commentary | April 10, 2018